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  • Brexit Vote Today

    So today the Brits will vote for or against remaining in the EU. Result will be known tomorrow morning / tonight.

  • #2
    Interesting times ahead, really curious how this will pan out...

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    • #3
      I was wondering when someone would get around to creating a thread on this topic.

      From what I understand, Remain seems to be given the edge.

      The last-day polls are very even, with possibly the slightest edge to Remain.

      The betting markets, however, are very heavily in the Remain camp, with the latest numbers I've seen today showing the odds/implied probability of Leave quickly dropping from the mid-20% range or so to about 15% currently.

      Other trends in forward indicators seem to be favoring Remain; equity markets are slightly up, while gold is slightly down. And the British Pound has appreciated pretty significantly in the past week.

      But it's still really, really, close, I hear. So close that random and unpredictable factors could still sway the decision either way. Whether the nasty rainy weather will have any differentiating effect that will be a net advantage for either the Remain or Leave camps; or whether young voters, who tend to favor Remain but who also tend to be less reliable in getting to the polling booths, will actually turn out; and whether previous trends in which "undecided" voters broke for the status quo (in this case, Remain) will be recapitulated on this issue or not.

      Any views from Brits on the ground on how they see this playing out?

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      • #4
        Yeah its propably going to be a close one less thant 5% difference bewen choices. That nationalist psycho propably did the leave party proverbial Bear's favor.

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        • #5
          The results are irrelevant since referendum results in EU are always irrelevant.
          But I'm hoping this will send a shock-wave across mainland Europe and prop up Euroskeptic movements.

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          • #6
            The irony is that a Brexit would be better for the EU than the UK probably...

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Fred333 View Post
              The irony is that a Brexit would be better for the EU than the UK probably...
              How so? (I don't yet have a decided view, so I'm interested in the argument for that)

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Lyn View Post
                The results are irrelevant since referendum results in EU are always irrelevant.
                But I'm hoping this will send a shock-wave across mainland Europe and prop up Euroskeptic movements.
                Sure you Putin fluffers do all those tiny nationalist states to play against eachother...

                Originally posted by juxtapose View Post
                How so? (I don't yet have a decided view, so I'm interested in the argument for that)
                It would be easier to push for reforms without London.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by juxtapose View Post
                  How so? (I don't yet have a decided view, so I'm interested in the argument for that)
                  UK has often been the one blocking centralization and reforms of the EU. Without UK, EU might finally be able to do that. OTOH, the UK will lose a lot of profitable opportunities for cooperation. For example, scholars will have a harder time moving freely through the EU university world, impeding research. In time these might be fixed with separate treaties, but in the short term...

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Asheren View Post
                    It would be easier to push for reforms without London.
                    There'd also be a big(ger) black hole in the finances required to pay for said reforms.

                    Originally posted by juxtapose View Post
                    The last-day polls are very even, with possibly the slightest edge to Remain.
                    It's a lot closer than I thought it would be, but I think undecided people voting for the status quo will keep us in

                    Originally posted by Fred333 View Post
                    UK has often been the one blocking centralization and reforms of the EU. Without UK, EU might finally be able to do that.
                    Why is this a good thing?

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Fred333 View Post

                      UK has often been the one blocking centralization and reforms of the EU. Without UK, EU might finally be able to do that. OTOH, the UK will lose a lot of profitable opportunities for cooperation. For example, scholars will have a harder time moving freely through the EU university world, impeding research. In time these might be fixed with separate treaties, but in the short term...
                      BS Everything that would be lost due to quiting EU will be replaced by agreements right away - like its done with every non EU country. Brexit allows UK to actually choose the agreements they wish to join, instead of having to swallom them all no matter if they make any sense for UK or not.

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                      • #12
                        From what I hear Scotland is mostly pro-EU. I wonder if they'll have a second go on their own seccession vote if UK decides to leave EU.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by EiB L/T View Post
                          BS Everything that would be lost due to quiting EU will be replaced by agreements right away - like its done with every non EU country. Brexit allows UK to actually choose the agreements they wish to join, instead of having to swallom them all no matter if they make any sense for UK or not.
                          We'll see, depending on how the vote goes. Agreements are made by two parties, the other side has to agree to them as well, just sayin'

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by drax View Post
                            From what I hear Scotland is mostly pro-EU. I wonder if they'll have a second go on their own seccession vote if UK decides to leave EU.

                            We keep hearing from the Nationalists that if England drags Scotland out of the EU they'll push for another referendum, but how much support it'd get I'm not sure.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by EiB L/T View Post
                              BS Everything that would be lost due to quiting EU will be replaced by agreements right away - like its done with every non EU country. Brexit allows UK to actually choose the agreements they wish to join, instead of having to swallom them all no matter if they make any sense for UK or not.
                              This sounds like the UK can just go anywhere in Europe and lay down the law. This is not how it works. A non-EU UK will be treated as a non-EU state. European member states are not simply going to heed to every single demand from the UK right after they left.

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