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Soyuz launch failed, crew makes emergency landing

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  • #31
    100% drilled hole that was covered up with some kind of glue.

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    • #32
      Originally posted by Kilgor View Post
      Sabotage or wrecking seems too Soviet a term to hide structural corruption, bad quality control and mismanagement.
      Yeah all that does exist in the Russian space industry.

      But just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they're not out to get you.

      Originally posted by Kilgor View Post
      100% drilled hole that was covered up with some kind of glue.
      Yeah it was something like that.

      Really it's hard to believe that someone could be so intentionally stupid. I understand people might want to keep their jobs and such but..

      Originally posted by Telmar View Post

      Hmmm. That hole could have been drilled by mistake. And an assembly can be poorly performed.

      Sabotage is plausible...although the group of people who have something to gain by sending a defective Soyouz to the space station is not really clear to me..Internal sabotage because someone wants to have a few people there fired?.
      Doesn't have to be a group. Say a lone Ukrainian nationalist sympathiser who just wants to do economic damage to Russia.

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      • #33
        Originally posted by Kilgor View Post
        100% drilled hole that was covered up with some kind of glue.
        Might have been an accident, a really stupid one.

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        • #34
          Originally posted by flamming_python View Post

          ....

          Doesn't have to be a group. Say a lone Ukrainian nationalist sympathiser who just wants to do economic damage to Russia.
          Well even if that were the case...that would´nt say much of the safety measures in the production areas....or oversight...

          And there are more problems today than there were even in the nineties. There have been several failures that did´nt happen in the past with these "no-nonsense" launch vehicles. The prospect of a less efficient management is much more realistic than a Ukrainian hoping to see the ISS crash down or the astronauts suffocate.

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          • #35
            Originally posted by moosefoot View Post
            All parts of the rocket have been recovered for analysis now:
            https://ria.ru/science/20181012/1530551281.html

            Zak has written a pretty thorough article on what is known so far:
            http://russianspaceweb.com/soyuz-ms-10.html



            Nowadays they have external cameras on the Soyuz, and while it is not likely that anything will be released publicly anytime soon I do hope to see it at some stage.
            Roscosmos says they're to be done with the investigation on October 20th which is remarkably quick, so I guess they're confident that they nailed down the issue already (possibly thanks to the new "Astra" digital monitoring system, which was installed for the first time on this flight). Don't think flights will resume before year's end, but I wouldn't be surprised if they fired it up for the first 2019 launch window.
            Last edited by moosefoot; 12-10-2018, 09:25 AM.

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            • #36
              ^ They're not done yet, officially at least, but this morning they launched a Soyuz 2.1b successfully. That rocket is sliiiiightly different from the "man-rated" Soyuz FG but AFAIK the first (boosters) and second (core) stages are essentially identical and it was there that the MS-10 cockup occurred.

              So, I take it they are feeling confident enough.

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              • #37
                They said today that they will proceed with Soyuz MS-11 on December 3rd. Investigation is done and the issue has been rectified.

                Prior to the December launch, another three Soyuz rockets will fly, including a Progress cargo ship launch to the ISS on November 16th and an European Space Agency launch from French Guyana on November 7th (Soyuz-2 with ESA's MetOp-C satellite).

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                • #38
                  video of incident from onboard camera -

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                  • #39
                    Thanks , Merk666, of posting that awesome video! it sure does appear that the remaining booster stack got bumped out of the intended trajectory, but maybe that was just the section that had tha aft-viewing camera on it?

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                    • #40
                      From what I read, a captor was deformed during assembly and led to the booster seperation problem. So a Baikonour final assembly problem, not a manufacturing one.

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                      • #41
                        Originally posted by Euroamerican View Post
                        Thanks , Merk666, of posting that awesome video! it sure does appear that the remaining booster stack got bumped out of the intended trajectory, but maybe that was just the section that had tha aft-viewing camera on it?
                        At 1mn25, it seems to me you can see the booster on the left still attached to to second stage by its upper tip. Amazing video, thanks Merk666. It´s amazing the altitude gain in so little time, these are monster rides, defintely not for everyone.

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                        • #42
                          Originally posted by moosefoot View Post

                          Nowadays they have external cameras on the Soyuz, and while it is not likely that anything will be released publicly anytime soon I do hope to see it at some stage.
                          Came way sooner than I thought, and indeed the footage seems to confirm what everyone's been saying since the beginning. One of the boosters failed to separate at the top and it pushed on the core stage, causing the rocket to veer violently off course, which triggered the emergency escape system.

                          Anyway, props to Roscosmos for being a bit more transparent than they usually are, that's cool. They typically keep all these materials to themselves, only issuing some kind of power point slide with illustrations, at best.

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                          • #43
                            Originally posted by Telmar View Post
                            From what I read, a captor was deformed during assembly and led to the booster seperation problem. So a Baikonour final assembly problem, not a manufacturing one.
                            Awesome footage. And the clarity and quality of it make it even more so.


                            It is also "amazing", so to speak, that a mere deformed captor can cause such a catastrophe.

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                            • #44
                              Originally posted by Ivan le Fou View Post

                              Awesome footage. And the clarity and quality of it make it even more so.


                              It is also "amazing", so to speak, that a mere deformed captor can cause such a catastrophe.
                              At these speeds and at such power there is no margin for anything. A rocket is at Mach 1 in less than a minute. The explosion in the Apollo 13 service module was caused by a spark igniting oxygen in a a tank that lost its air tightness simply by being dropped once before being installed. It´s that sensitive for everyone when you´re at the maximum of what the elements can do.

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                              • #45
                                Originally posted by moosefoot View Post
                                Prior to the December launch, another three Soyuz rockets will fly, including a Progress cargo ship launch to the ISS on November 16th and an European Space Agency launch from French Guyana on November 7th (Soyuz-2 with ESA's MetOp-C satellite).
                                Well, now all three have gone up and it's all worked out just fine.

                                Progress MS-10 (Progress 71 according to NASA's own classification) launched the other day:
                                https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ip6VAKfTKyU

                                And performed its automatic ISS docking procedure yesterday:
                                https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsPnUqOCWmk

                                So, Soyuz MS-11 with a three-man crew (well, two men, one woman) is all set for December 3rd.

                                I like it! At first I was sure they'd be stuck until next year after the MS-10 abort, but nope.

                                (as for the other two November Soyuz launches I mentioned, here's the November 7th ESA launch from French Guyana:
                                https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R5t5_LXKvMk

                                And here's the Russian GLONASS-M launch from Plesetsk I didn't mention by name at the time, but that was one of the three:
                                https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54lqhWuM3uQ
                                )

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