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Forbes: Has The Media Overinflated The Risks Of A China Trade War?

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  • Forbes: Has The Media Overinflated The Risks Of A China Trade War?



    https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapo.../#48824c4635fb


    The US trade deficit sank already 6 %.


    I hope that this "shock" for China leads to them really accepting the rules of western markets and companies.

    Though with Merkel meeting Yinping in Berlin I am not sure she is no Trump and will most probably fall again for soem promises.


    Trump made us all a favour!

  • #2
    Originally posted by picanha View Post

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapo.../#48824c4635fb


    The US trade deficit sank already 6 %.


    I hope that this "shock" for China leads to them really accepting the rules of western markets and companies.

    Though with Merkel meeting Yinping in Berlin I am not sure she is no Trump and will most probably fall again for soem promises.


    Trump made us all a favour!
    at the same time how much has US exports went down

    Comment


    • #3
      I guess not much because this would have eaten up the deficit decline

      https://www.statista.com/statistics/...es-by-quarter/

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Tizer View Post
        at the same time how much has US exports went down
        Pork is down. China is now buying lower quality Brazilian pork at a higher price. As of May most US exports were at near record highs.

        Comment


        • #5
          They are also buying soy beans at higher prices.


          https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKCN1HB11V

          Comment


          • #6
            China has been preparing for this showdown for decades. This is why China's trade to GDP ratio or dependency on trade is now BELOW global average or 2.6 times smaller than Germany's. China's trade surplus was DOWN $80 billion last year, but its economy grew faster than in previous year. I found it funny when a German celebrates this kind of instability in trade. Germany totally depend on trade, 2.6 times MORE dependent than China.

            Good to know that not all Germans are like this: https://qz.com/1323752/bmw-is-invest...nt-in-germany/

            Finally, I agree that Trump has done everyone a favour. This can only fasten China's effort to create its own market rules OUTSIDE the Western regime. China is now even more determined to grow other poorer developing countries. The future is in these poorer countries which the West has already given up on (not that you don't want to help them, but you cannot help them.)

            These are all tactical moves by Trump. There is no grand strategic vision. Well, China is moving forward by improving itself rather than keeping others down. The West is trying hard to disrupt China rather than improving itself. US is down on the Global Innovation Index, again, while China moved up 5 spots putting China right behind France. If this trend continues, China will be in the top 10 most innovative country within a decade. https://phys.org/news/2018-07-china-global-index.html If US really wants to keep its leadership position, then it should greatly increase its investment in itself. But it is not doing that. It is trying to make China progress slower. 2018 could be a turning point. This is the year when China's domestic demand surpasses that of US. This is also the year when China would invest more in R&D than US.

            Well, good luck with your short sightedness!

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by pla View Post
              China has been preparing for this showdown for decades. This is why China's trade to GDP ratio or dependency on trade is now BELOW global average or 2.6 times smaller than Germany's. China's trade surplus was DOWN $80 billion last year, but its economy grew faster than in previous year. I found it funny when a German celebrates this kind of instability in trade. Germany totally depend on trade, 2.6 times MORE dependent than China.

              Good to know that not all Germans are like this: https://qz.com/1323752/bmw-is-invest...nt-in-germany/

              Finally, I agree that Trump has done everyone a favour. This can only fasten China's effort to create its own market rules OUTSIDE the Western regime. China is now even more determined to grow other poorer developing countries. The future is in these poorer countries which the West has already given up on (not that you don't want to help them, but you cannot help them.)

              These are all tactical moves by Trump. There is no grand strategic vision. Well, China is moving forward by improving itself rather than keeping others down. The West is trying hard to disrupt China rather than improving itself. US is down on the Global Innovation Index, again, while China moved up 5 spots putting China right behind France. If this trend continues, China will be in the top 10 most innovative country within a decade. https://phys.org/news/2018-07-china-global-index.html If US really wants to keep its leadership position, then it should greatly increase its investment in itself. But it is not doing that. It is trying to make China progress slower. 2018 could be a turning point. This is the year when China's domestic demand surpasses that of US. This is also the year when China would invest more in R&D than US.

              Well, good luck with your short sightedness!
              Hahaha this again. China stronk is my favorite stronk.

              “Chinese Innovation.” lulz

              Let’s try this again, what Chinese companies besides DJI and ZTE have been able to come up with a product that appeals to a western audience? Gunpowder doesn’t count.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Jonathan View Post
                Hahaha this again. China stronk is my favorite stronk.

                “Chinese Innovation.” lulz
                And why not ? I think you don't figure their potential in term of R&D both at HR and funding level
                Sure intelectual property has another meaning in China (and Asia in general)
                But China has a pool of universities, money to invest and manpower getting out of good univs to have an excellent innovation potential

                Sometimes to learn about a country, better go see on site rather than rely on home news.
                I have seen myself several chinese campuses and frankly, they have nothing to be ashamed off when compared to western campuses. Sometimes it's quite the contrary in fact.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Mordoror View Post

                  And why not ? I think you don't figure their potential in term of R&D both at HR and funding level
                  Sure intelectual property has another meaning in China (and Asia in general)
                  But China has a pool of universities, money to invest and manpower getting out of good univs to have an excellent innovation potential

                  Sometimes to learn about a country, better go see on site rather than rely on home news.
                  I have seen myself several chinese campuses and frankly, they have nothing to be ashamed off when compared to western campuses. Sometimes it's quite the contrary in fact.
                  People have been talking about China’s “innovation potential” for years and years. The reality is Chinese companies have been unable to produce much of any innovative technologies that become adopted outside of China (where the government provides them an unfair advantage — see DiDi/Uber). That’s just a simple fact.

                  And don’t kid yourself. I’ve been to China several times (including earlier this year which I detailed in another thread). Mainland China outside of Shanghai is still very much a developing country. Hell, infrastructure (or a lack thereof) is a great case in point. As far as “seeing” things, I’d be interested what you actually saw. Like many things in China, looks could be deceiving. Pretty facades on shitty buildings isn’t exactly uncommon in China. Go up a few floors in every other random building with a Louis Vuitton store on the ground floor to see what I mean.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    If you don't believe me believe those articles (from newspapers hardly prochinese)

                    https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/...on-superpower/

                    https://www.forbes.com/sites/michael.../#ba17806273d9

                    As for infrastructures, i both agree and disagree
                    They are improving
                    Fast and Huge
                    But yes, some parts of the country are still dragging behind in a 50s-60s fashion

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Mordoror View Post
                      If you don't believe me believe those articles (from newspapers hardly prochinese)

                      https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/...on-superpower/

                      https://www.forbes.com/sites/michael.../#ba17806273d9

                      As for infrastructures, i both agree and disagree
                      They are improving
                      Fast and Huge
                      But yes, some parts of the country are still dragging behind in a 50s-60s fashion
                      Bunch of silly BS that’s repeated over and over without making any sense.

                      Let’s take a look at that random Forbes contributor as an example. He cites two cell phone makers (Huawei and Xiaomi, although he forgot ZTE), an ecommerce Company (Alibaba), a social media company (WeChat), and a drone company (DJI).

                      Let’s review. Besides DJI, which of those companies are “innovative” or could be considered to be innovative in their respective industry? The cell phone makers? Care to explain why the Chinese themselves highly prefer to overpay for the massively overpriced iPhone to any of the dozen Chinese cell phones? Or how about WeChat, which despite being touted by every Chinese Stronkist doesn’t have much of a following anywhere besides China?

                      Where exactly has China shown to be innovative? Compare that to literally hundreds of companies in Silicon Valley whose products are used globally.

                      Speaking of innovation... China’s other commonly cited “success story” DiDi (a Chinese ride sharing company) recently announced plans to follow US ride sharing companies and start investing in autonomous technology... by opening up an R&D facility in Silicon Valley.

                      Edit: just saw that random Forbes contributor guy cited DiDi as well. Hahaha
                      Last edited by Jonathan; 11-07-2018, 07:50 AM.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        which of those companies are “innovative” or could be considered to be innovative in their respective industry
                        Innovation is not limited to hardware but also include processes, marketing, corporate development etc
                        Ford is praised for Fordism and chain work for example. It's the process that was innovative, not the final product

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Jonathan View Post
                          Bunch of silly BS that’s repeated over and over without making any sense.

                          Let’s take a look at that random Forbes contributor as an example. He cites two cell phone makers (Huawei and Xiaomi, although he forgot ZTE), an ecommerce Company (Alibaba), a social media company (WeChat), and a drone company (DJI).

                          Let’s review. Besides DJI, which of those companies are “innovative” or could be considered to be innovative in their respective industry? The cell phone makers? Care to explain why the Chinese themselves highly prefer to overpay for the massively overpriced iPhone to any of the dozen Chinese cell phones? Or how about WeChat, which despite being touted by every Chinese Stronkist doesn’t have much of a following anywhere besides China?

                          Where exactly has China shown to be innovative? Compare that to literally hundreds of companies in Silicon Valley whose products are used globally.

                          Speaking of innovation... China’s other commonly cited “success story” DiDi (a Chinese ride sharing company) recently announced plans to follow US ride sharing companies and start investing in autonomous technology... by opening up an R&D facility in Silicon Valley.

                          Edit: just saw that random Forbes contributor guy cited DiDi as well. Hahaha

                          We chat was designed for chinese market, same with Vcontacte was designed for Russian market. Huawei is pretty popular in EE as they are decent phones for the price. I have one as my "work" phone and its very strudy.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            lol! Switzerland is the most innovative country in the world, and how many of their products do you know? I know Logitech is Swiss. Anyway, go ride Chinese subway trains in Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, or Philadelphia. Or Chinese full electric buses in several cities across California, Massachusetts, etc...The British is seeking the Chinese to build a Chinese designed nuclear power plant in UK. Chinese high speed trains are being built in several countries. Turkey has already been running Chinese high speed trains for years. China does not need to "tell" people how good China's high speed trains are. China simply invite you to China to ride on world's largest high speed railway system. Lastly, more countries have China as their largest trading partner than US.

                            Now back to reality: https://www.npr.org/2018/07/12/62831...ain-the-better

                            As President Trump threatens to heap more tariffs on Chinese imports, he's got one important fact on his side: The United States remains China's biggest single export market, buying some $500 billion in goods last year alone.

                            But China is less dependent on the American market than it was even a decade ago and in some ways is better able to withstand a trade war than the United States.............................

                            ....................But China has been steadily diversifying its economy, in ways that make it less vulnerable to U.S. pressure than it once was.

                            "China's economy is much less dependent on trade now and on trade with the U.S. than it used to be," says Linda Lim, professor of corporate strategy and international business at the University of Michigan.................


                            China's $500 billion in exports to the United States are equal to about 4 percent of its gross domestic product, and losing even half of that would be a blow. But China can gradually replace it by exporting to other countries, something it has been doing for years anyway.

                            In fact, a trade war would only accelerate a process already underway in China of becoming more self-sufficient economically, Lim says.

                            "China wants to become more independent technologically and less dependent on foreign imports of high-tech products in particular, semiconductors and the like, which it gets from the U.S. and elsewhere," she says.
                            "So it's perverse. You reinforce their determination to be less dependent on you," Lim says............................
                            13% of China's trade deficit with US was caused by Apple. That is just for ONE American company. Now add up other American companies: Dell, IBM, Nike, etc....or other non-American companies: Sony, Cannon, Samsung, etc....So go ahead and tax the Americans on products made by the Chinese for non-Chinese companies.

                            We thank Trump for motivating China to work even harder to become less dependent. Tell me why would any Chinese company depend on American companies after the ZTE trouble? Actually, other Chinese companies were already shifting its supplier base away from US sources. But ZTE was stupid enough to blindly depend on US suppliers. Well, lessons learned, I hope.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by pla View Post
                              lol! Switzerland is the most innovative country in the world, and how many of their products do you know? I know Logitech is Swiss. Anyway, go ride Chinese subway trains in Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, or Philadelphia. Or Chinese full electric buses in several cities across California, Massachusetts, etc...The British is seeking the Chinese to build a Chinese designed nuclear power plant in UK. Chinese high speed trains are being built in several countries. Turkey has already been running Chinese high speed trains for years. China does not need to "tell" people how good China's high speed trains are. China simply invite you to China to ride on world's largest high speed railway system. Lastly, more countries have China as their largest trading partner than US.

                              But up to now there was no "innovation" in this field. It was just built on western type trains or developed from there on.

                              CRH1--Bombardier
                              CRH2--Kawasaki Heavy Industries
                              CRH3--From German ICE3
                              CRH5-Alstom 380 Series
                              CRH380A/AL--380 km/h type of CRH2
                              CRH380B/BL/BK/BG--380km/h type of CRH3
                              CRH380C--380km/h type of CRH3
                              CRH380D--380km/h type of CRH1




                              Considering Switzerland ther is much development and research going on there. Lots of things developed that are not obvious but this is also true for many other western countries.

                              Fundamental research and specialised engineering pharmaceutical solutions etc.

                              Forbes recently called Switzerland "the new silicon valley for robotics"

                              See why:


                              https://www.switzerland-innovation.com/home

                              or

                              Bone surgery laser robot (Miracle / Werner-Siemens Fund)

                              https://www.wernersiemens-stiftung.c...er-technology/

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