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Satellite data strongly suggests that China, Russia are fudging their GDP

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  • Satellite data strongly suggests that China, Russia are fudging their GDP

    China, Russia and other authoritarian countries inflate their official GDP figures by anywhere from 15 to 30 percent in a given year, according to a new analysis of a quarter-century of satellite data.

    The working paper, by Luis R. Martinez of the University of Chicago, also found that authoritarian regimes are especially likely to artificially boost their gross domestic product numbers in the years before elections, and that the differences in GDP reporting between authoritarian and non-authoritarian countries can't be explained by structural factors, such as urbanization, composition of the economy or access to electricity.
    https://www.sfgate.com/business/arti...a-12916204.php

    Had to shorten title as per forum constraints.

  • #2
    This is funny! The West is becoming too desperate. The "working paper" was not peer reviewed as it was "posted" by the author on SSRN or Social Science Research Network. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....act_id=3093296

    The fact this "study" has been picked up by the Washington Post just shows how desperate the West has become. If nightlight intensity can be used to "correlate" with GDP, then why even study economics? In most real studies, authors would at least discuss some of the potential flaws with authors' own analysis. This "study" didn't have any of that. Even as an amateur I can spot some potential flaws. For example, most Chinese live in high rise apartments which skews the data. Other potential flaws are the effects of pollution, government policy to save energy (China is MORE energy efficient than US.), etc...

    energy efficiency ranking: https://aceee.org/portal/national-po...onal-scorecard

    I have been seeing these types of reports since I was a fetus (just joking). I am sure even some Westerners are starting to get bored by them.

    Anyway, I am more reassured as I see more of this type of reports from the West :-)
    Last edited by pla; 16-05-2018, 07:52 AM.

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    • #3
      China Stronk!!!

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      • #4
        pla, you're suggesting official statements from your government are as trustworthy as those of, say, the Dutch government?

        And you're genuinely surprised that folks should call you a propaganda bot? My my.

        Here's a long-due PSA to all members fortunate enough to be subjects of authoritarian regimes: Do your thing, guys, go to town. I'm happy for you if you're happy with the ways your native countries are run. But don't fricking expect me to pretend your leaders are paragons of justice, freedom, incorruptibleness, integrity and transparency.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by muck View Post
          pla, you're suggesting official statements from your government are as trustworthy as those of, say, the Dutch government?

          And you're genuinely surprised that folks should call you a propaganda bot? My my.

          Here's a long-due PSA to all members fortunate enough to be subjects of authoritarian regimes: Do your thing, guys, go to town. I'm happy for you if you're happy with the ways your native countries are run. But don't fricking expect me to pretend your leaders are paragons of justice, freedom, incorruptibleness, integrity and transparency.
          Do I care if you call me a "propaganda bot?" You guys misuse that word so much, it is now totally meaningless. Just like some poor minority in US overusing the word "racist." It is now an honor to called such.

          Depends on what "official statements" you are talking about. I am suggesting China's official statements about China have a higher chance of being closer to reality than ANYTHING the Western government can provide. Of course, I would trust the Dutch government more on anything it says about its own country.

          Well, no need to argue with me, please show me the evidence. Please provide ONE official statement about China from a Western Government that is closer to reality than the Chinese ones. The ball is now in your court.

          I like how you conveniently skipped all the specific arguments I made against this specific self-posted "study" about nightlight intensity.

          I am not sure about correlation between nightlight intensity and GDP, but I sure do know German car makers are selling more cars in China than in US. 40% of VW, Audi, BMW, Benz, and Porsche's combined sales are in China. https://www.best-selling-cars.com/ch...ury-car-sales/ In comparison, only 6.8% of these German car makers' cars were sold in US. Germans are selling nearly SIX times more cars in China than in US, or FOUR times more cars in China than in Germany. Is there supposed to be some kind of correlation between GDP and number of German cars sold in China? Well, maybe I shouldn't leave out the Americans. GM is also selling more cars in China than in US.

          Lastly, don't take my words for it. The leader of the land of the free said that China has been "raping" America. On FOX news, the Whitehouse chief of staff said that China's system has been working for China. So, should I "trust" them?
          Last edited by pla; 16-05-2018, 03:28 PM.

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          • #6
            Christ on a Pushbike.

            Look at the US unemployment and inflation figures.
            Utter fantasy.

            God emperor is on record as a candidate calling out US unemployment figures as "phoney" and inflation doesn't include food or fuel.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by pla View Post

              Do I care if you call me a "propaganda bot?" You guys misuse that word so much, it is now totally meaningless. Just like some poor minority in US overusing the word "racist." It is now an honor to called such.

              Depends on what "official statements" you are talking about. I am suggesting China's official statements about China have a higher chance of being closer to reality than ANYTHING the Western government can provide. Of course, I would trust the Dutch government more on anything it says about its own country.
              Serieusly, do you trust a single "communist" party state more then a western democracy? As long as China has "one mind" policies, censors a lot of information that brothers the CCP and it lacks freedom of speech your claims make no sence at al. In the end the Chineese reality is what is fitting the CCP.
              The Tianamen square was probebly allways peaceful, and Mao probebly didn't caused a huge famine..
              Everything is state owned, controled by a communist party I would't put to much hope in "Chineese reality".

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Jumper View Post

                Serieusly, do you trust a single "communist" party state more then a western democracy? As long as China has "one mind" policies, censors a lot of information that brothers the CCP and it lacks freedom of speech your claims make no sence at al. In the end the Chineese reality is what is fitting the CCP.
                The Tianamen square was probebly allways peaceful, and Mao probebly didn't caused a huge famine..
                Everything is state owned, controled by a communist party I would't put to much hope in "Chineese reality".

                Well, talk is cheap, please provide examples...

                The two examples you provided do not make sense since the CCP never denied that Mao caused famines and never said Tiananmen was always peaceful.

                So try again...

                At least 120 million Chinese freely leave China every year, and 99% of them freely return to China. So, the communist party does not completely control the people. This number will soon be DOUBLED. The current Beijing airport is world's 2nd busiest, and it can no longer support the ever growing number of Chinese traveling overseas. So a new, even bigger 2nd airport is being built in Beijing. It will open in 2019:

                Last edited by pla; 18-05-2018, 05:51 AM.

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                • #9
                  Satellite data probably cannot "strongly" suggest GDP growth one way or another, so any paper that makes such claim sounds a little bit suspicious to me. This makes the reliability of the recent paper that claims that China's GDP growth has been greatly exaggerated questionable. I would like to direct your attention to another recent paper, which contradicts the more recent paper completely, but seems much more professional and scientific in its research method.

                  http://www.nber.org/papers/w23323

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                  • #10
                    Well, "study" like this will never be picked up or reported by the Washington Post because it costs $5 to get access it. (just kidding...we all know why...)



                    Here is an actual peer reviewed and published study: https://link.springer.com/article/10...688-016-0091-3

                    Observed changes in growth polarity can be attributed plausibly to post-crisis government intervention and subsidy policies introduced around the world. Overall, the data and techniques we present here make economic evidence for the rise of China, the decline of US manufacturing, the euro crisis, the Arab Spring, and various, recent, Middle East conflicts visually evident for the first time.
                    America's fundamental misunderstanding of China:
                    Last edited by pla; 20-05-2018, 09:16 AM.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by pla View Post


                      Well, talk is cheap, please provide examples...

                      The two examples you provided do not make sense since the CCP never denied that Mao caused famines and never said Tiananmen was always peaceful.

                      So try again...

                      At least 120 million Chinese freely leave China every year, and 99% of them freely return to China. So, the communist party does not completely control the people. This number will soon be DOUBLED. The current Beijing airport is world's 2nd busiest, and it can no longer support the ever growing number of Chinese traveling overseas. So a new, even bigger 2nd airport is being built in Beijing. It will open in 2019:

                      You mean a single party state that follows it's own civilians with millions of camera's? You need to watch out with what you say..
                      In other countries they make movies about such situations.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Jumper View Post

                        You mean a single party state that follows it's own civilians with millions of camera's? You need to watch out with what you say..
                        Your point? China is hiding the fact that it uses cameras to monitor its citizens?

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by pla View Post

                          Your point? China is hiding the fact thag it uses cameras to monitor its citizens?
                          For what reason is it like a reality-soap? The CCP has a lot to lose, are you sure your state tells you the thruth? The CCP doesn't wants you to know what happens with people that critisize the state. O

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Jumper View Post

                            For what reason is it like a reality-soap? The CCP has a lot to lose, are you sure your state tells you the thruth? The CCP doesn't wants you to know what happens with people that critisize the state. O
                            Loaded binary question. I said the Chinese government statements about China have higher chances of being closer to reality than anything the West can offer. Being closer to reality is not the same as being equal to reality.

                            I and my friends critized the state last night in public. Nothing happened to us. We are still alive and happy.
                            Last edited by pla; 20-05-2018, 03:01 PM.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by pla View Post

                              Loaded binary question. I said the Chinese government statements about China have higher chances of being closer to reality than anything the West can offer. Being closer to reality is not the same as being equal to reality.

                              I and my friends critized the state last night in public. Nothing happened to us. We are still alive and happy.
                              You sound a bit surprised........don't get me wrong, I'm glad you are unharmed, but as a Westerner I would never dream of typing a sentence like that. Criticism of the government is practically a duty here.

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