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Opinion: Who Has the World's No. 1 Economy? Not the U.S.

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  • I see the prediction went from 2021 to 2025 to 2032 now.

    http://news.ihsmarkit.com/press-rele...-ihs-economics

    https://www.economist.com/blogs/grap...-gdp-forecasts

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    • Originally posted by anon45 View Post
      It all depends on who is making the predictions and based on what variables. The exact or even the rough time point does not matter anymore. It will happen in my lifetime. Lately, the Chinese government has been emphasizing on slower but higher quality economic growth. This is why they didn't hesitate when 40% of China's factories were temporarily shut down for pollution inspections this year.

      https://www.npr.org/sections/paralle...ollution-crack
      Crotty's colleague Archie Liu, general manager of MKT & Associates, estimates that 40 percent of China's factories have been at least temporarily shut down in the latest spate of inspections. He says that's a good thing.
      This is the true power of China, which is unthinkable in any other country.

      https://thediplomat.com/2017/12/chin...-does-it-mean/

      Xinhua’s statements emphasize China’s focus on “high-quality development” that is balanced and sustainable. This shift away from targeting rapid growth above all else began at the 2014 Central Economic Work Conference, where China committed to a “new normal” of slower but more efficient growth. That year, China announced a “soft” GDP target as a way of deemphasizing its importance. This year, China has gone even farther to downplay the singular pursuit of economic growth, with President Xi Jinping deciding at the 19th Party Congress in October to refrain from making any explicit GDP growth pledge.
      GDP is only ONE of the indicators...If a country is better managed, then it can be a better place to live than a poorly managed richer country. America has higher per capita GDP than many countries, but several lower GDP per capita countries are doing better than Americans in education, healthcare, crime, etc...There are similar examples in extremely poor countries as well. Bangladesh is extremely poor, but it is doing better in health care and feeding its people than a relatively richer India (almost twice as rich).


      On another news: China's economy is roughly 16% of the global economy, but it contributed to more than 30% of the global growth in 2017. That is more than the contributions from US, Japan and the EU COMBINED. https://www.un.org/development/desa/...Full_Web-1.pdf

      Developing economies remain the main drivers of global growth. In 2017, East and South Asia accounted for nearly half of global growth, as both regions continue to expand at a rapid pace. The Chinese economy alone contributed about one-third of global growth during the year.
      Last edited by pla; 29-12-2017, 03:28 PM.

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      • China overtook the U.S. as the world's largest economy in 2014 in PPP terms. IMO, when China will overtake the U.S. in nominal GDP is not as important as how larger the Chinese economy will be than that of America's in PPP terms.

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        • ...

          The fact that China has already bypassed the United States as the world’s biggest economy according to IMF rankings for the past three years, and continues to grow its economy more than three times faster than the U.S., has yet to be fully absorbed strategically. It is hard for many to believe that an authoritarian state is surpassing the United States in the 21st century as the world’s top economic power, with accompanying political, diplomatic and military power to follow.
          ...

          Instead of accepting these emerging realities, however, the reaction by many in the United States has been denial. Some quibble over which statistical measures to believe. The IMF GDP ranking is based on purchasing power parity, the measure favored by economists for comparing national economies as it tracks the purchasing power of each country using its own currency. These deniers point instead to nominal GDP figures which are based on market exchange rate conversion of local currency into U.S. dollars. Under nominal GDP, the U.S. does remain technically number one for the moment, but given China’s rate of growth, the U.S. will be surpassed even under this less accurate measure by 2029, or earlier. Others are total deniers, arguing that China will never reach economic parity with the United States. They believe that China’s rapid growth is unsustainable, creating mountains of debt that will inevitably cause collapse. Others outright deny China’s numbers, arguing that they cook the books with lies, with real GDP and growth less than what is officially reported. Deniers also point to China’s diminishing labor supply, caused by low fertility rates and an aging population. Another school of deniers even claims that the problem is not China, but rather the United States, itself. Superior Chinese entrepreneurs, who are more open to bold risk and initiative, have outperformed the U.S. The U.S. should not blame China but get its own house in order.

          ...
          http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the...ca-china-23925

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          • Travel is another indicator of economic activities... The visiting French president got China to order 184 planes.

            State Secrets will stay state secrets...but travel data are not secrets, they are easy to verify. Boeing predicts that China will need 7000 new planes by 2036. As of 2016, China's domestic air travel (this does not even include air travel outside China) ranked as the 2nd largest market in the world after US, but it is predicted to be the largest by 2022. Keep in mind that over 60% of world's high speed trail are in China (and still building more), so unlike Americans, Chinese people have many options when it comes to travel...

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...us-planes-soon

            Boeing predicts China will need more than 7,200 new aircraft worth over $1 trillion in the 20 years through 2036. The number of people flying to, from and within the country will reach 1.5 billion by that time, according to the International Air Transport Association.


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            • Heading to 4.5% growth, staggering 25% of American manufacturers surveyed to quit for lower costs in what was Indochina and US, ten year bonds purchases slows.

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              • Originally posted by primer View Post
                Heading to 4.5% growth, staggering 25% of American manufacturers surveyed to quit for lower costs in what was Indochina and US, ten year bonds purchases slows.
                4.5% growth? Based on what? All major international institutions have raised their estimations of China's growth. So not sure where you got your 4.5% from. Americans are more than welcome to manufacture elsewhere...If China can't keep them, then they should go. It's the market. Good luck manufacturing elsewhere. Chinese are moving manufacturing to overseas, too. So not sure what is the issue there....

                Why would China want to keep buying bonds? Ten years low? what a good news!

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                • What will your poor do for work with automation laying off workers?
                  To lift them out of poverty. Are there service jobs lined up so what is planned? Please explain the plan for that?

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                  • Originally posted by primer View Post
                    What will your poor do for work with automation laying off workers?
                    To lift them out of poverty. Are there service jobs lined up so what is planned? Please explain the plan for that?
                    Nothing you need to be worried about, and you cannot worry about it even if you want to. I have confidence in the Chinese government when it comes to dealing with poverty because the track record is clear: http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn....s-the-problem/

                    The World Bank data shows that the total number of impoverished Chinese declined by nearly 680 million people in the last three decades. That's about 95 percent of the total global decline. By registering double digit growth for three decades, Beijing has transformed the fortunes of a poor nation within a generation. That's amazing, but it tells you that in the rest of the world, progress has been much, much slower – if there's been progress at all.
                    These are the real reasons why the West is concerned. Here we have a country showing the world how wealth can be created without armed conquest.
                    Last edited by pla; 11-01-2018, 12:34 PM.

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                    • If we hadn't bought anything from you and clsoed our markets - no tech transfers through state mandated JVs, where would you be now?

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                      • Originally posted by picanha View Post
                        If we hadn't bought anything from you and clsoed our markets - no tech transfers through state mandated JVs, where would you be now?

                        You mean you guys spent your hard-earned money to buy some products and services that other people produced? Wow! what a travesty!

                        You mean you have the option of not transferring tech to others, but you still chose to transfer your tech without being threatened at gun point? Wow!


                        China is looking into the future, focusing on developing the poorer developing countries. The future of growth is in these countries. China has the market size to help these countries. At some point, China would want to make products in other developing countries to satisfy the demand in China. Chinese have more experience making products under "tough" conditions. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.d372cff5c5a1

                        The mighty force of consumerism has taken hold in China. In 2018, retail sales in China are expected to equal or surpass sales in the United States for the first time, another definitive marker in China's rise to economic superpower status. The growth of China's domestic retail market is luring everyone from automakers to make up companies that want to cash in on the country's growing middle class, but it also serves as another complication in President Trump's quest to transform U.S.-China trade.

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                        • The Marriott International hotel chain has apologised and condemned “separatists” in China after the Beijing government shut down its website over an online questionnaire that suggested some Chinese regions were separate countries.


                          China’s Cyberspace Administration, the internet watchdog, said the hotelier had “seriously violated national laws and hurt the feelings of the Chinese people” after a customer survey listed Tibet, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau as separate countries. The regulator ordered Marriott’s website and booking applications to close for a week.


                          The company, which operates more than 100 hotels in China, quickly responded with a profuse apology distancing itself from charges of supporting separatist movements.
                          https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...d-taiwan-error

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