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  • Originally posted by EITAN88 View Post

    Israel has been crucial to the U.S for decades as it provides an abondance of quality intel about the region, adds lucrativeness to U.S made weapons (when F-15s and F-16s decimated the Soviet equipped Syrian airforce in the 1982 for example... still applies today with the most recent strikes in Syria although Israeli developed weapons have taken the foreground. The platforms are still U.S made though) and has certainly proven to be the most stable U.S ally in the region following the turmoil of the Arab Spring.

    And today, thanks to Iran's expansionist policies, it can be considered less of a liability to U.S foreign interests in the region in terms of relations with the Gulf States.
    Yes it has as a weapons proving ground. But the USA does not support Israel as one as its influencers in the Middle East, but as a nation to support as much as she can in a hostile environment. But relations with Israel are not a "plus" for making a point with the Arab and other muslim nations around.

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    • Originally posted by Telmar View Post
      Yes it has as a weapons proving ground. But the USA does not support Israel as one as its influencers in the Middle East, but as a nation to support as much as she can in a hostile environment. But relations with Israel are not a "plus" for making a point with the Arab and other muslim nations around.
      That would have been true in the past, but Iran's regional ambitions have changed everyone's priorities.

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      • I was reading around about IDF/AF SEAD/DEAD abilities.
        It seems that the AGM-88 HARM is a fairly recent procurement with the approval by President Obama dated 2013. Some reports even say that the old AGM-78 was their mainstream antiradiation missile till very recently.

        https://www.upi.com/Israel-seeks-5B-...9641372706630/

        I cannot believe Israel did not develop or procure something else in this critical field for its own existence or did they invest so much in EW/ECM systems they feel confident operating inside an active air defense engagement area without the need to physically destroy the opposing air defense?
        Indeed untill they lost that F-16I to a Syrian S-200, it was like they did not care about degrading the defenses but just hitting the actual target.
        Did they use the HARM in the recent attacks?

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        • While coming to Syrian Air Defense/Air Force, those MiG-29s and MiG-23MLDs are simply unable to engage and defend their own air space. I wonder if they even tried to scramble during the recent attacks. Even the recent upgrade, adding the R-77 missile for the MiG-29s did not help building any confidence in the Syrian air defense command to push them to fight against the IDF/AF. What a shame of an jet fighter!

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          • Originally posted by north44 View Post
            I was reading around about IDF/AF SEAD/DEAD abilities.
            It seems that the AGM-88 HARM is a fairly recent procurement with the approval by President Obama dated 2013. Some reports even say that the old AGM-78 was their mainstream antiradiation missile till very recently.

            https://www.upi.com/Israel-seeks-5B-...9641372706630/

            I cannot believe Israel did not develop or procure something else in this critical field for its own existence or did they invest so much in EW/ECM systems they feel confident operating inside an active air defense engagement area without the need to physically destroy the opposing air defense?
            Indeed untill they lost that F-16I to a Syrian S-200, it was like they did not care about degrading the defenses but just hitting the actual target.
            Did they use the HARM in the recent attacks?
            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IAI_Harop

            Rumour has it they used that.

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            • Originally posted by north44 View Post
              While coming to Syrian Air Defense/Air Force, those MiG-29s and MiG-23MLDs are simply unable to engage and defend their own air space. I wonder if they even tried to scramble during the recent attacks. Even the recent upgrade, adding the R-77 missile for the MiG-29s did not help building any confidence in the Syrian air defense command to push them to fight against the IDF/AF. What a shame of an jet fighter!
              MiG-23s trying to sortie against the IAF would simply be suicide; the Syrians know this. The remainder of the MiG-23 fleet hasn't seen any upgrades since the 1980's; had they received anything like, say, the proposed MiG-23-98 upgrade, they might be of some value. In the stock ML / MLD format though, they're little better than flying targets for the IAF.

              As for the MiG-29s - Syrian pilots had far below the number of training hours that their Western / Israeli counterparts got, even before the outbreak of the war. I would be surprised if the fighter pilots got any training time at all for most of the conflict. Add to this the fact that the SyAAF probably isn't in the position to induct and train new pilots. I don't want to denigrate the aircrews of the SyAAF, who risk life and limb much more consistently than practically any other airforce, but the level of competence and expertise necessary to effectively challenge the IAF simply isn't there right now.

              There's also the question of how many MiG-29s are actually serviceable at any given time - considering its lack of ground-attack capability, one imagines that the MiG-29s are probably at the low end of the SyAAF's maintenance priorities.

              In any event, I suspect that the regime would like to preserve valuable assets for serious contingencies - e.g. a Turkish / American / Israeli attempt at invasion and/or direct regime change. There's no point in losing irreplaceable equipment and personnel in what amounts to a limited skirmish.

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              • We can always bring more mess in that place:
                Scandinavian volunteers unit fought IS under Russian military command: https://bmpd.livejournal.com/3198514.html (in Russian), https://www.aldrimer.no/nordmenn-kje...k-side-i-syria (Norsk original article). Several photos included.

                If it is not a pure fake news, the only possibility of this i can imagine is a Russian (exUSSR) expats in nordic countries.

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                • Originally posted by AND View Post
                  We can always bring more mess in that place:
                  Scandinavian volunteers unit fought IS under Russian military command: https://bmpd.livejournal.com/3198514.html (in Russian), https://www.aldrimer.no/nordmenn-kje...k-side-i-syria (Norsk original article). Several photos included.

                  If it is not a pure fake news, the only possibility of this i can imagine is a Russian (exUSSR) expats in nordic countries.
                  The original article (in a Swedish more or less neo-nazi online outlet) is about a month old, so I'm surprised so few have bothered with this story, except Aldrimer (which is a Norwegian defense-related site almost exclusively dedicated to sowing Russia scares wherever they can be found or invented) and Flamman (a classic Swedish lefty socialist/borderline communist outlet).

                  Anyway, it's probably somewhat true. I mean, the photos that are alleged to be from Syria do seem genuine enough, though that kind of conspicuous flag waving has been seen before and it can be a bit misleading.

                  It would be the height of irony if Scandinavian right-wing extremists are fighting on the Russian side in Syria, while Scandinavian right-wing extremists are fighting on the Kievan side in Ukraine. Though really, it's happened before. People like these are often looking for a war to participate in for numerous reasons, and then they try to ideologically motivate it somehow, with some occasionally rather inconsistent results.

                  In fact, I do actually recall that one of the more well-known Swedes who fought under the Azov banner in Ukraine indeed expressed his intention/desire to fight on the Russian side in Syria. And he (and others) have hinted that some guys from those circles were just about to go there.

                  But to jump back to the flag thing... If all there is is a bunch of shots with a Norwegian flag, and an anonymous interview, that still doesn't quite cut it IMO. Would like to see some corroboration somewhere. Are there any other Russian-language sources on these alleged volunteer formations?

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by AAMC View Post
                    In any event, I suspect that the regime would like to preserve valuable assets for serious contingencies - e.g. a Turkish / American / Israeli attempt at invasion and/or direct regime change. There's no point in losing irreplaceable equipment and personnel in what amounts to a limited skirmish.
                    Well I never fully understand this part. In the last 20 years, several regimes did not push their Air Force in harm's way to the point that the regime collapsed with the Air Force not even trying a lucky shot. Always waiting for "something bigger to happen".

                    I fully agree, there is nothing in Syrian (or for that matter Russian) inventory that is a real tactical match for the IDF/AF or NATO. They can get lucky as they did with that S-200 in February, but that's it.
                    They should rather push those MiG-29s to the ground attack role as they did in 2014. They are useless anyway.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Nansouty View Post
                      In my opinion, and while it is clearly apparent that Iran has been militarily trounced by the IDF in Syria, as of today, Iran is he clear winner of the current crisis. First, renewed US sanctions and Israeli strikes take the heat off the Iranian leaders for the countries current economic woes. Second, it is beneficial in the region since Iran is confronting Israel, the USA and a Saudi regime that is more and more perceived as a complicit of America and Israel, which generates discord among the enemy : Iran is more united while its foes are more divided.

                      But that is not all : each war has ea cost, financiel, military and political. The US is the linchpin of the regional alliance opposing Iran, and the US is a global power with commitments all over the globe : a resurgent China is questoioning US hegemony in such vital regions as the Pacific and perhaps the Indian Ocean, meaning that US resources cannot be fully committed to support Israel and Saudis. And just add the fact that US ecoomic power is relatively decreasing, while China's is growing. Iran can perhaps hope to outlast US capacity to oppose effictevely its ambitions in the region.

                      Lastly, it is clear a rift is starting to appear between the US and the EU on the nuclrear treaty matter, of which no one can ptredict yet how it will evolve.Iran keeping a relatively subdued attitude - ie, collaborating with the EU - would certainly belp this trend to develop, and at litthle cost for the Iranian leadership : the current support is is getting from Russia and China, and the good will from Turkey (drifting away from NATO as well, apparently), do not force them to acquire nuclear weapons for their survival.

                      So, for these trhree reasons, Iran is clearly winning in my opinion, despite its military defeats in Syria. Thes defeats are solely due to the relentless efforts of the IDF, it still remains to be seen how long Israel, and its US supporters will be able to keep them up. Sun Tzu would not be optimistic...
                      Pretty fundamental misunderstanding of the strategic demands on the two countries, and their relative positions.

                      One, Israel isn't just some country propped up by America, this isn't like Syria's relationship with Russia. Israel has a GDP of over $380 billion, only $50 billion less than Iran's, whilst having 73 million less mouths to feed.

                      Iran now not only finds itself in the position of defending its own borders and conducting internal security operations against dissenters; but also finds itself propping up governments and armies other than its own in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. This is very expensive. Also, with the exception of Iraq, all of these armies are open to attack.

                      Once again, Israel, who need not bolster militias, does not need to stretch its resources across multiple nations. It need only defend its own borders. While Israel may not like having an enemy's proxy armies on its borders, they are not a greater strategic threat than the real armies that were on their borders 40 years ago.

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                      • Originally posted by Alcaldemb View Post

                        Pretty fundamental misunderstanding of the strategic demands on the two countries, and their relative positions.

                        One, Israel isn't just some country propped up by America, this isn't like Syria's relationship with Russia. Israel has a GDP of over $380 billion, only $50 billion less than Iran's, whilst having 73 million less mouths to feed.

                        Iran now not only finds itself in the position of defending its own borders and conducting internal security operations against dissenters; but also finds itself propping up governments and armies other than its own in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. This is very expensive. Also, with the exception of Iraq, all of these armies are open to attack.

                        Once again, Israel, who need not bolster militias, does not need to stretch its resources across multiple nations. It need only defend its own borders. While Israel may not like having an enemy's proxy armies on its borders, they are not a greater strategic threat than the real armies that were on their borders 40 years ago.
                        While your assessment is correct it is forgetting quite a few things
                        Isreali siege mentality leading to an unbalanced ratio of money poured into the defence/police apparatus industry. While it gives cash back with foreign contracts, it has a real impact on Israeli economy
                        Israel has to acommodate new comers every years and that is not cheap either
                        Israel has and will continue to perform abroad operations up to setting bases (like in Erythrea) which is also costing
                        And there are quite a few other economical and geostrategical shortcomings (significant poor population base, mainly among Arab Israeli and Haredi jews, difficulties to export any other technologies than those related to defence industry, limited access to natural ressources and a bottled territory with only a few major ports and entry points.....etc)
                        Israel economy is certainly better than the Iranian one but it is not doing so well (that's not for nothing that you had demonstrations about expesnive life and inflation a few months ago)

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                        • Originally posted by Mordoror View Post

                          While your assessment is correct it is forgetting quite a few things
                          Isreali siege mentality leading to an unbalanced ratio of money poured into the defence/police apparatus industry. While it gives cash back with foreign contracts, it has a real impact on Israeli economy
                          Israel has to acommodate new comers every years and that is not cheap either
                          Israel has and will continue to perform abroad operations up to setting bases (like in Erythrea) which is also costing
                          And there are quite a few other economical and geostrategical shortcomings (significant poor population base, mainly among Arab Israeli and Haredi jews, difficulties to export any other technologies than those related to defence industry, limited access to natural ressources and a bottled territory with only a few major ports and entry points.....etc)
                          Israel economy is certainly better than the Iranian one but it is not doing so well (that's not for nothing that you had demonstrations about expesnive life and inflation a few months ago)
                          It really isn't, you're making statements that aren't entirely correct. So, while you are right about poverty levels amongst Haredi Jews and Arabs, it is important to point out that increasingly more Haredi are becoming part of mainstream society. So, over time, those poverty levels should start to decline.

                          Additionally, the high cost of living is not inflation driven, Israel actually has very low inflation, 0.2% last year and -0.5% the year before, whilst having GDP growth exceeding 4%. Additionally you mention a reliance of defense exports to drive the economy, this is completely inaccurate. I believe Israel's defense exports hover in the area of 4-6% billion a year, the total value of all Israeli exports exceeds $100 billion.

                          Finally, you mention Israel's siege mentality. And yes, while Israel does spend more on defense as percentage of GDP than European nations, that total is down from double-digit expenditures in the 80's to around 5.5-6% today.

                          In fact, when compared with Iran, not only is Israel's economy significantly healthier and more systemically important; but its overall security expenditures are less of a burden once accounting for external adventures.

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                          • Originally posted by Alcaldemb View Post

                            It really isn't, you're making statements that aren't entirely correct. So, while you are right about poverty levels amongst Haredi Jews and Arabs, it is important to point out that increasingly more Haredi are becoming part of mainstream society. So, over time, those poverty levels should start to decline.

                            Additionally, the high cost of living is not inflation driven, Israel actually has very low inflation, 0.2% last year and -0.5% the year before, whilst having GDP growth exceeding 4%. Additionally you mention a reliance of defense exports to drive the economy, this is completely inaccurate. I believe Israel's defense exports hover in the area of 4-6% billion a year, the total value of all Israeli exports exceeds $100 billion.

                            Finally, you mention Israel's siege mentality. And yes, while Israel does spend more on defense as percentage of GDP than European nations, that total is down from double-digit expenditures in the 80's to around 5.5-6% today.

                            In fact, when compared with Iran, not only is Israel's economy significantly healthier and more systemically important; but its overall security expenditures are less of a burden once accounting for external adventures.
                            I stand corrected for the inflation
                            On the other hand, weapons and military industry related exportation is not to be belittleled as it accounted for around 6.5 billions in 2017 for a total exportations of around 61-62 billions (still in 2017, export number has indeed hugely increased in value during the 2018 y and probably changed the balance). That was still 10% and more than 150 companies involved back then
                            Behind drugs and dual use electronics and microchips though for this year

                            As for the military budget, 2017-2018 it was voted for more 70 billions of shekels so more around 19.5 billions of $, not taking in consideration "unexpected events"
                            Protective Edge operation for example costed 7 billions NIS (1.9 billion of $$)
                            5-6% of military budget is still not small. And you can thank USA for providing a significant economical help

                            I fully agree with your conclusion sentence, Israeli economy is certainly way more healthy than Iranian one. One thing however you forgot to mention is that the Iranian economy is under embargo which is certainly not helping a sheer comparison. It has the potential to grow big, mainly due to natural ressources availability. But yes, in the actual situation, Iranian overall economy is no match for Israeli one
                            Including with side impacts on military industry and quality of military equipment and training

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Mordoror View Post

                              I stand corrected for the inflation
                              On the other hand, weapons and military industry related exportation is not to be belittleled as it accounted for around 6.5 billions in 2017 for a total exportations of around 61-62 billions (still in 2017, export number has indeed hugely increased in value during the 2018 y and probably changed the balance). That was still 10% and more than 150 companies involved back then
                              Behind drugs and dual use electronics and microchips though for this year

                              As for the military budget, 2017-2018 it was voted for more 70 billions of shekels so more around 19.5 billions of $, not taking in consideration "unexpected events"
                              Protective Edge operation for example costed 7 billions NIS (1.9 billion of $$)
                              5-6% of military budget is still not small. And you can thank USA for providing a significant economical help

                              I fully agree with your conclusion sentence, Israeli economy is certainly way more healthy than Iranian one. One thing however you forgot to mention is that the Iranian economy is under embargo which is certainly not helping a sheer comparison. It has the potential to grow big, mainly due to natural ressources availability. But yes, in the actual situation, Iranian overall economy is no match for Israeli one
                              Including with side impacts on military industry and quality of military equipment and training
                              Without risking going too OT. Our aid to Israel is $3.8 billion, which comes out to less than 1% of Israel's over $380 billion GDP. We help, but Israel could theoretically cover that amount. As an American, frankly I like the arrangement with Israel, it is far less expensive and does more to bolster our manufacturing than our arrangements in Europe, South Korea and Japan.

                              As for natural resources. Two things. One, nations reliant on the exportation of natural resources often have underdeveloped economies. Two, the value of many of those resources has dropped off dramatically, thus not providing the boost Iran expected.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by north44 View Post

                                Well I never fully understand this part. In the last 20 years, several regimes did not push their Air Force in harm's way to the point that the regime collapsed with the Air Force not even trying a lucky shot. Always waiting for "something bigger to happen".

                                I fully agree, there is nothing in Syrian (or for that matter Russian) inventory that is a real tactical match for the IDF/AF or NATO. They can get lucky as they did with that S-200 in February, but that's it.
                                They should rather push those MiG-29s to the ground attack role as they did in 2014. They are useless anyway.
                                Perhaps because pilots come from families close to the regime. Pilots chosen not so much for ability as they are for loyalty. I believe that's Iraq's case in a nutshell. As for the Syrians, they've gotten their asses kicked hard, repeatedly, by the IAF, so I can see a real reluctance to get engaged in another air battle like the one revolving around Operation Mole Cricket 19

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