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  • [QUOTE=AAMC;n349667]

    I think that it was something that the Syrians simply had to tolerate, as the Syrian military was in no condition to meaningfully challenge Turkey. Any type of conflict with Turkey would have upset the timetable for clearing the Damascus suburbs, and potentially would have had even worse consequences, depending on the degree to which the Turks were willing to escalate the situation.

    The regime didn't like the Kurds setting up their own semi-autonomous enclave, but the alternative that ensued is quite a bit worse. Instead of reasonably passive Kurdish forces, the place is now overrun with FSA types who are all diehard irreconcilable with the current government. Furthermore, from a geographic standpoint, the Rebel enclave in Idlib has been substantially strengthened, as any threat of being outflanked or cut off from the north has been eliminated. The action in Afrin also occurred contemporaneously with the establishment of Turkish 'observation posts' in Idlib, and, when taken together, the Turkish actions have served to cement the permanence of a Turkish-backed microstate in Northern Syria, which the regime will be unable to assert sovereignty over for the foreseeable future.[/QUOTE

    I agree.

    The Turkish "microstate" can be dealt with since it's a hollow shell - The very fact that is has to rely upon jihadists who will regularly fight each other for control all but guarantees its rather short life span. An entrenched Kurdish state however, backed by the West (And American aircraft) would have been a nightmare scenario for the Syrians - In either case, they would have had to rely on the Turks to do the dirty work.

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    • Originally posted by heiliger_geist
      turkey gave ypg a chance to retreat before olivebranch.. a meeting was held with russia (on behalf of syria) where the turkish military was offering a solution. the ypg had the chance to retreat and let syria fill in the place. the ypg refused the offer, instead they attacked hatay and reyhanl. opportunity was given, thats undeniable.

      "YPG refued the offer, INSTEAD they attacked Hatay and Reyhanlı"? I'm sure you mean they responded to days of indiscriminate bombing of Afrin and surrounding villages by Turkey?

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      • Large number of Syrian Army troops pour into southern Syria as mass build up continues

        BEIRUT, LEBANON (9:20 A.M.) – A large number of Syrian Arab Army soldiers arrived in the Dara’a and Al-Quneitra governorates on Friday, as they prepare to launch their long-awaited offensive to retake the Jordanian and Israeli borders.

        According to a military report, the Syrian Army’s High Command redeployed much of the Republican Guard troops from Damascus to the Al-Quneitra Governorate on Friday. In addition to the Republican Guard, several units from the Tiger Forces and Raqqawi tribes made their way to the Dara’a Governorate in order to positions themselves for the upcoming attack on the provincial capital.

        Both the Tiger Forces and Raqqawi tribesmen have fought together at several fronts previously, including Deir Ezzor and east Aleppo. A source in Dara’a told Al-Masdar News this morning that the Tiger Forces have yet to send their shock troops to the province, which means the offensive at the provincial capital will not commence just yet.
        https://www.almasdarnews.com/article...-up-continues/

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        • Originally posted by heiliger_geist
          PYD arrests 200 young men from Al-Hasakah province within two days for forcible recruitment....

          "Syrian tribes and all communities condemn and denounce in the strongest terms the Kurds who prevented the delegation of the province of Hasakah to come and participate in this conference and consider this a great insult to the Syrian tribes and Syrian people."

          @HananShamounNL

          That's the kind of talk that generates IED's.

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          • https://news.usni.org/2018/06/04/fle...er-june-4-2018

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            • Very nice convo on the situation in Northern Syria with Rojava, US and Turkey. Note the impression Gayle got while visiting Rojava, including areas like Raqqa. Paints a much different picture than what Heiliger_Geist is trying to portray.
              Also, the last comment made in the convo gives you a good answer to why the Kurds said no to Syrian control over Afrin (or any part of their areas). Remember that the people who ran Afrin were locals.
               
              Last edited by FulcrumKAF; 07-06-2018, 02:31 PM.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by FulcrumKAF View Post
                Very nice convo on the situation in Northern Syria with Rojava, US and Turkey. Note the impression Gayle got while visiting Rojava, including areas like Raqqa. Paints a much different picture than what Heiliger_Geist is trying to portray.
                Also, the last comment made in the convo gives you a good answer to why the Kurds said no to Syrian control over Afrin (or any part of their areas). Remember that the people who ran Afrin were locals.
                Interesting video.
                The fact that the Kurds were historically mistreated should have provided more impetus for negotiations with the government. Weakened as it is, the Syrian government was prepared for unprecedented concessions. Instead, the Kurds placed their faith in the Americans protecting them from the Turks which was never going to happen.
                In any case, they had an opportunity and now it is lost. Afrin at best will return to Syria one day. At worst it will remain on the front line of a fractured Syria indefinitely, and under the boot of the Turks.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Squall-84 View Post
                  Interesting video.
                  The fact that the Kurds were historically mistreated should have provided more impetus for negotiations with the government. Weakened as it is, the Syrian government was prepared for unprecedented concessions. Instead, the Kurds placed their faith in the Americans protecting them from the Turks which was never going to happen.
                  In any case, they had an opportunity and now it is lost. Afrin at best will return to Syria one day. At worst it will remain on the front line of a fractured Syria indefinitely, and under the boot of the Turks.
                  The Kurds in Afrin had no guarantee by anyone of unprecedented concessions, as repeated several times by PYD officials, merely a proposal to hand over Afrin to the Syrian government in order to avert the Turkish offensive. Given the situation the people of Afrin found themselves in during the proposal, there was no need for unprecedented concessions by Damascus.
                  The only thing Russia seemed willing to guarantee was protection from Turks. For anything else, they had to rely on the goodwill of the Syrian government. Given Kurdish history of "deals" with the central governments of their respective countries, I can easily see why they didn't trust Damascus.

                  I'm pretty sure that Damascus expected Kurds to hand over control over Afrin once they saw that Turkey was serious about the invasion and that no international power would come to their aid (and thus didn't propose any serious concessions during the discussions on the deal to hand over Afrin).

                  Also, keep in mind that the people who ran Afrin were locals. It was a personal decision for them, with family, house and land affected by their decision.

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                  • Isis retakes eastern part of albu kamal city from SAA using multiple vbied
                    Last edited by HHH816; 08-06-2018, 11:53 AM.

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                    • http://www.newsweek.com/israel-bombs...tanyahu-977123

                      Netanyahu said that Israel’s bombing of Iranian-backed Shi’ite Muslim militias is “helping the security” of European nations.

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                      • Syrian Army extends deadline for rebels to reconcile in southern Syria

                        BEIRUT, LEBANON (1:15 P.M.) – The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has agreed to extend the deadline for the rebels to submit their answer regarding whether or not they will reconcile with the government in southern Syria.

                        Initially, the deadline was set for June 14th, but as Al-Masdar reported on Wednesday, the date would likely be pushed back as the Syrian Army negotiates with the Al-Quneitra town elders and community leaders.
                        https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/arti...outhern-syria/

                        Comment


                        • US, Turkey agree to force YPG leave Manbij in July

                          BEIRUT, LEBANON (1:40 P.M.) – Turkey’s Chief of General Staff General Hulusi Akar and NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe General Curtis Scaparotti agreed via telephone on Wednesday to force the Kurdish-led People’s Protection Units (YPG) to leave Manbij by July.

                          In a statement released on Thursday, the Turkish General Staff said Akar and Scaparrotti developed a roadmap to end the disagreement over Manbij. The Manbij roadmap was announced after a meeting in Washington last week between Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

                          The deal focuses on the withdrawal of the YPG forces from Manbij. Should the model prove a success, Turkey will push for a similar arrangement in eastern Syria.
                          https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/arti...anbij-in-july/

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                          • The best response would be to launch a preemptive strike against Idlib, Afrin and Al-Bab by SAA and YPG supported by VKS.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Guma View Post
                              http://www.newsweek.com/israel-bombs...tanyahu-977123

                              Netanyahu said that Israel’s bombing of Iranian-backed Shi’ite Muslim militias is “helping the security” of European nations.
                              The whole Western alliance backed wars in Libya and Syria have demonstrably massively damaged EU security and lead to the deaths of hundreds of EU citizens.
                              We are spending billions every year to try and convert guys who failed at Koran binding studies into engineers and gynaecologists but the real threat and radicalisation comes from shia???
                              Yeah OK, this is kinda perverse shot term logic here from Bibi. Long term if EU won't defend their borders then they deserve all the consequences, they literally asked for it.
                              Even here in Ireland there's been several cultural enrichment rapes in past few weeks, there's a trio of guys on the prowl. It ain't shia doing it.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Tea drinker View Post
                                The whole Western alliance backed wars in Libya and Syria have demonstrably massively damaged EU security and lead to the deaths of hundreds of EU citizens.
                                We are spending billions every year to try and convert guys who failed at Koran binding studies into engineers and gynaecologists but the real threat and radicalisation comes from shia???
                                Yeah OK, this is kinda perverse shot term logic here from Bibi. Long term if EU won't defend their borders then they deserve all the consequences, they literally asked for it.
                                Even here in Ireland there's been several cultural enrichment rapes in past few weeks, there's a trio of guys on the prowl. It ain't shia doing it.
                                I symphatise with the Israeli position and I have no illusion that Iran is unequivocally a force for good in the ME, but when it comes to the European security our interests are clearly diametrically opposed to those of Israel. Which makes this geopolitical conflict so crappy.

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