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  • Originally posted by Nansouty View Post
    In my opinion, and while it is clearly apparent that Iran has been militarily trounced by the IDF in Syria, as of today, Iran is he clear winner of the current crisis. First, renewed US sanctions and Israeli strikes take the heat off the Iranian leaders for the countries current economic woes. Second, it is beneficial in the region since Iran is confronting Israel, the USA and a Saudi regime that is more and more perceived as a complicit of America and Israel, which generates discord among the enemy : Iran is more united while its foes are more divided.

    But that is not all : each war has ea cost, financiel, military and political. The US is the linchpin of the regional alliance opposing Iran, and the US is a global power with commitments all over the globe : a resurgent China is questoioning US hegemony in such vital regions as the Pacific and perhaps the Indian Ocean, meaning that US resources cannot be fully committed to support Israel and Saudis. And just add the fact that US ecoomic power is relatively decreasing, while China's is growing. Iran can perhaps hope to outlast US capacity to oppose effictevely its ambitions in the region.

    Lastly, it is clear a rift is starting to appear between the US and the EU on the nuclrear treaty matter, of which no one can ptredict yet how it will evolve.Iran keeping a relatively subdued attitude - ie, collaborating with the EU - would certainly belp this trend to develop, and at litthle cost for the Iranian leadership : the current support is is getting from Russia and China, and the good will from Turkey (drifting away from NATO as well, apparently), do not force them to acquire nuclear weapons for their survival.

    So, for these trhree reasons, Iran is clearly winning in my opinion, despite its military defeats in Syria. Thes defeats are solely due to the relentless efforts of the IDF, it still remains to be seen how long Israel, and its US supporters will be able to keep them up. Sun Tzu would not be optimistic...
    Pretty fundamental misunderstanding of the strategic demands on the two countries, and their relative positions.

    One, Israel isn't just some country propped up by America, this isn't like Syria's relationship with Russia. Israel has a GDP of over $380 billion, only $50 billion less than Iran's, whilst having 73 million less mouths to feed.

    Iran now not only finds itself in the position of defending its own borders and conducting internal security operations against dissenters; but also finds itself propping up governments and armies other than its own in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. This is very expensive. Also, with the exception of Iraq, all of these armies are open to attack.

    Once again, Israel, who need not bolster militias, does not need to stretch its resources across multiple nations. It need only defend its own borders. While Israel may not like having an enemy's proxy armies on its borders, they are not a greater strategic threat than the real armies that were on their borders 40 years ago.

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    • Originally posted by Alcaldemb View Post

      Pretty fundamental misunderstanding of the strategic demands on the two countries, and their relative positions.

      One, Israel isn't just some country propped up by America, this isn't like Syria's relationship with Russia. Israel has a GDP of over $380 billion, only $50 billion less than Iran's, whilst having 73 million less mouths to feed.

      Iran now not only finds itself in the position of defending its own borders and conducting internal security operations against dissenters; but also finds itself propping up governments and armies other than its own in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. This is very expensive. Also, with the exception of Iraq, all of these armies are open to attack.

      Once again, Israel, who need not bolster militias, does not need to stretch its resources across multiple nations. It need only defend its own borders. While Israel may not like having an enemy's proxy armies on its borders, they are not a greater strategic threat than the real armies that were on their borders 40 years ago.
      While your assessment is correct it is forgetting quite a few things
      Isreali siege mentality leading to an unbalanced ratio of money poured into the defence/police apparatus industry. While it gives cash back with foreign contracts, it has a real impact on Israeli economy
      Israel has to acommodate new comers every years and that is not cheap either
      Israel has and will continue to perform abroad operations up to setting bases (like in Erythrea) which is also costing
      And there are quite a few other economical and geostrategical shortcomings (significant poor population base, mainly among Arab Israeli and Haredi jews, difficulties to export any other technologies than those related to defence industry, limited access to natural ressources and a bottled territory with only a few major ports and entry points.....etc)
      Israel economy is certainly better than the Iranian one but it is not doing so well (that's not for nothing that you had demonstrations about expesnive life and inflation a few months ago)

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      • Originally posted by Mordoror View Post

        While your assessment is correct it is forgetting quite a few things
        Isreali siege mentality leading to an unbalanced ratio of money poured into the defence/police apparatus industry. While it gives cash back with foreign contracts, it has a real impact on Israeli economy
        Israel has to acommodate new comers every years and that is not cheap either
        Israel has and will continue to perform abroad operations up to setting bases (like in Erythrea) which is also costing
        And there are quite a few other economical and geostrategical shortcomings (significant poor population base, mainly among Arab Israeli and Haredi jews, difficulties to export any other technologies than those related to defence industry, limited access to natural ressources and a bottled territory with only a few major ports and entry points.....etc)
        Israel economy is certainly better than the Iranian one but it is not doing so well (that's not for nothing that you had demonstrations about expesnive life and inflation a few months ago)
        It really isn't, you're making statements that aren't entirely correct. So, while you are right about poverty levels amongst Haredi Jews and Arabs, it is important to point out that increasingly more Haredi are becoming part of mainstream society. So, over time, those poverty levels should start to decline.

        Additionally, the high cost of living is not inflation driven, Israel actually has very low inflation, 0.2% last year and -0.5% the year before, whilst having GDP growth exceeding 4%. Additionally you mention a reliance of defense exports to drive the economy, this is completely inaccurate. I believe Israel's defense exports hover in the area of 4-6% billion a year, the total value of all Israeli exports exceeds $100 billion.

        Finally, you mention Israel's siege mentality. And yes, while Israel does spend more on defense as percentage of GDP than European nations, that total is down from double-digit expenditures in the 80's to around 5.5-6% today.

        In fact, when compared with Iran, not only is Israel's economy significantly healthier and more systemically important; but its overall security expenditures are less of a burden once accounting for external adventures.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Alcaldemb View Post

          It really isn't, you're making statements that aren't entirely correct. So, while you are right about poverty levels amongst Haredi Jews and Arabs, it is important to point out that increasingly more Haredi are becoming part of mainstream society. So, over time, those poverty levels should start to decline.

          Additionally, the high cost of living is not inflation driven, Israel actually has very low inflation, 0.2% last year and -0.5% the year before, whilst having GDP growth exceeding 4%. Additionally you mention a reliance of defense exports to drive the economy, this is completely inaccurate. I believe Israel's defense exports hover in the area of 4-6% billion a year, the total value of all Israeli exports exceeds $100 billion.

          Finally, you mention Israel's siege mentality. And yes, while Israel does spend more on defense as percentage of GDP than European nations, that total is down from double-digit expenditures in the 80's to around 5.5-6% today.

          In fact, when compared with Iran, not only is Israel's economy significantly healthier and more systemically important; but its overall security expenditures are less of a burden once accounting for external adventures.
          I stand corrected for the inflation
          On the other hand, weapons and military industry related exportation is not to be belittleled as it accounted for around 6.5 billions in 2017 for a total exportations of around 61-62 billions (still in 2017, export number has indeed hugely increased in value during the 2018 y and probably changed the balance). That was still 10% and more than 150 companies involved back then
          Behind drugs and dual use electronics and microchips though for this year

          As for the military budget, 2017-2018 it was voted for more 70 billions of shekels so more around 19.5 billions of $, not taking in consideration "unexpected events"
          Protective Edge operation for example costed 7 billions NIS (1.9 billion of $$)
          5-6% of military budget is still not small. And you can thank USA for providing a significant economical help

          I fully agree with your conclusion sentence, Israeli economy is certainly way more healthy than Iranian one. One thing however you forgot to mention is that the Iranian economy is under embargo which is certainly not helping a sheer comparison. It has the potential to grow big, mainly due to natural ressources availability. But yes, in the actual situation, Iranian overall economy is no match for Israeli one
          Including with side impacts on military industry and quality of military equipment and training

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Mordoror View Post

            I stand corrected for the inflation
            On the other hand, weapons and military industry related exportation is not to be belittleled as it accounted for around 6.5 billions in 2017 for a total exportations of around 61-62 billions (still in 2017, export number has indeed hugely increased in value during the 2018 y and probably changed the balance). That was still 10% and more than 150 companies involved back then
            Behind drugs and dual use electronics and microchips though for this year

            As for the military budget, 2017-2018 it was voted for more 70 billions of shekels so more around 19.5 billions of $, not taking in consideration "unexpected events"
            Protective Edge operation for example costed 7 billions NIS (1.9 billion of $$)
            5-6% of military budget is still not small. And you can thank USA for providing a significant economical help

            I fully agree with your conclusion sentence, Israeli economy is certainly way more healthy than Iranian one. One thing however you forgot to mention is that the Iranian economy is under embargo which is certainly not helping a sheer comparison. It has the potential to grow big, mainly due to natural ressources availability. But yes, in the actual situation, Iranian overall economy is no match for Israeli one
            Including with side impacts on military industry and quality of military equipment and training
            Without risking going too OT. Our aid to Israel is $3.8 billion, which comes out to less than 1% of Israel's over $380 billion GDP. We help, but Israel could theoretically cover that amount. As an American, frankly I like the arrangement with Israel, it is far less expensive and does more to bolster our manufacturing than our arrangements in Europe, South Korea and Japan.

            As for natural resources. Two things. One, nations reliant on the exportation of natural resources often have underdeveloped economies. Two, the value of many of those resources has dropped off dramatically, thus not providing the boost Iran expected.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by north44 View Post

              Well I never fully understand this part. In the last 20 years, several regimes did not push their Air Force in harm's way to the point that the regime collapsed with the Air Force not even trying a lucky shot. Always waiting for "something bigger to happen".

              I fully agree, there is nothing in Syrian (or for that matter Russian) inventory that is a real tactical match for the IDF/AF or NATO. They can get lucky as they did with that S-200 in February, but that's it.
              They should rather push those MiG-29s to the ground attack role as they did in 2014. They are useless anyway.
              Perhaps because pilots come from families close to the regime. Pilots chosen not so much for ability as they are for loyalty. I believe that's Iraq's case in a nutshell. As for the Syrians, they've gotten their asses kicked hard, repeatedly, by the IAF, so I can see a real reluctance to get engaged in another air battle like the one revolving around Operation Mole Cricket 19

              Comment


              • Originally posted by north44 View Post

                Well I never fully understand this part. In the last 20 years, several regimes did not push their Air Force in harm's way to the point that the regime collapsed with the Air Force not even trying a lucky shot. Always waiting for "something bigger to happen".

                I fully agree, there is nothing in Syrian (or for that matter Russian) inventory that is a real tactical match for the IDF/AF or NATO. They can get lucky as they did with that S-200 in February, but that's it.
                They should rather push those MiG-29s to the ground attack role as they did in 2014. They are useless anyway.
                It's the aerial equivalent of the old 'fleet in being' concept. The idea was that a fleet, just by virtue of existing, exerts an influence on enemy tactics and strategy. One of the best examples of this was the German battleship Tirpitz during WWII - even though the Tirpitz never fired a shot in anger, the mere fact that she was available and ready to sortie meant that the Royal Navy had to act more cautiously than it would otherwise. Heavy escorts, which could have conceivably been put to use elsewhere, had to be devoted to convoy duties to counter the threat that the Tirpitz represented, even though that threat was never actually realized.

                The Syrian MiG-29 fleet functions in much the same way. Even though the MiGs will probably never see real action, the presence of modern jet fighters in the Syrian arsenal nonetheless influences Western and Israeli tactics and action. Consider, for example, the massive escort for that was deployed for the April 13th missile strikes - 36 fighters carrying AAMs. The threat represented by the Syrian aircraft demands that hostile powers take additional precautions and field additional escorts carrying AAMs instead of bombs, which complicates their logistical preparations and reduces their striking power.

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                • Whoever said the US is over stretched militarily and is not able to support Israel and Saudi Arabia... the largest armada seen in a long time is currently deployed to the Mediterranean. The John C. Stennis carrier strike group with like a 7 or more destroyer escort (1 German warship too) plus submarines is literally off the coast of Israel and launching around the clock strikes against ISIS targets along the Euphrates. If that doesn't show military commitment and capabilities then I don't know what else will. Pretty much more firepower in that strike group than any in other Navy or even air force in the region. They also just got to theater a few weeks ago...

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Lord Helmet View Post
                    Whoever said the US is over stretched militarily and is not able to support Israel and Saudi Arabia... the largest armada seen in a long time is currently deployed to the Mediterranean. The John C. Stennis carrier strike group with like a 7 or more destroyer escort (1 German warship too) plus submarines is literally off the coast of Israel and launching around the clock strikes against ISIS targets along the Euphrates. If that doesn't show military commitment and capabilities then I don't know what else will. Pretty much more firepower in that strike group than any in other Navy or even air force in the region. They also just got to theater a few weeks ago...
                    Not all of their targets have been ISIS along the Euphrates - And surely, such a battle group is hardly needed to finish off the last ISIS losers in Dez.

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                    • It seems Iron dome was jammed. They just fired to the thin air.

                      https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,...263430,00.html

                      As usual for both sides, the first claim was about successful interception. Both sides are trusting they radar screens too much and a plume of smoke in the air proves nothing.

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                      • Originally posted by LAworkerbee View Post

                        Not all of their targets have been ISIS along the Euphrates - And surely, such a battle group is hardly needed to finish off the last ISIS losers in Dez.
                        I think the show of force is pretty evident as you pretty much point out, the US is walking around with a big stick again. When you're bringing the largest fleet in the region all the way from across the other side of the world you're definitely making a statement. The bombing itself can be done by moving a couple squadrons of F-16s to Jordan or elsewhere in the region for a lot cheaper.

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                        • Originally posted by Lord Helmet View Post

                          I think the show of force is pretty evident as you pretty much point out, the US is walking around with a big stick again. When you're bringing the largest fleet in the region all the way from across the other side of the world you're definitely making a statement. The bombing itself can be done by moving a couple squadrons of F-16s to Jordan or elsewhere in the region for a lot cheaper.
                          Exactly mi amigo.

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                          • Massive explosions rocked the Hama military air base in western Syrian early on Friday afternoon, killing at least 11 pro-regime fighters, according to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
                            Syrian state media confirmed that blasts were heard coming from the base, but made no comment on casualties or the cause of the explosions.
                            https://www.timesofisrael.com/huge-e...cause-unclear/

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                            • Looking at the pictures, that is a massive hit in that airbase. My bet is another Israeli air strike, a big one too. For secondary explosions to be that big they must have hit a lot of fuel and/or ammo. Probably a good amount of dead personnel too, logistical personnel would be my guess. A costly hit for sure. I'm still shocked how the SAA losses equipment and personnel week over week and they're still standing, got to give them that.

                              In other news, more equipment and armored vehicles being funneled to the SDF, as well as continued offensive along the Euphrates. You would think that in the coming weeks they should clear the area. Hopefully is the case so they can move towards the Iraqi border and do the same.

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                              • Its mostly Deir military council there, arab tribals from that area.

                                And their quality is not .... good. At all. Perhaps with the new goods US will push YPG to take charge in that offensive because DZM should have already cleared it.

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