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  • "kill probability" of missiles - mostly Russian thing

    I was reading about different SAM systems. All the Russian anti-air missiles state some astonishing numbers of this "kill probability with a single missile". Basically everything from the SA-5 onwards is citing this amazing number "kill probability with a single missile". It starts at the already astonishing number of 85% to the modern 95%-100%. I reckon this is mostly a "Russian thing" since I do not see such numbers in the US missiles.

    Now it's bullshit of course since as far as I know, several Air Forces are still flying into the "danger zone", with the due concern, but 99,xx% of the times, they also fly back to base not "destroyed".

    Does anyone know what does that number represent or is it just some wishful thinking for a military hardware brochure?

  • #2
    Originally posted by north44 View Post
    I was reading about different SAM systems. All the Russian anti-air missiles state some astonishing numbers of this "kill probability with a single missile". Basically everything from the SA-5 onwards is citing this amazing number "kill probability with a single missile". It starts at the already astonishing number of 85% to the modern 95%-100%. I reckon this is mostly a "Russian thing" since I do not see such numbers in the US missiles.

    Now it's bullshit of course since as far as I know, several Air Forces are still flying into the "danger zone", with the due concern, but 99,xx% of the times, they also fly back to base not "destroyed".

    Does anyone know what does that number represent or is it just some wishful thinking for a military hardware brochure?
    If you think the specs are lies, you should ask the Indians about the retail price of a pre-owned and certified aircraft carrier.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by north44 View Post
      Does anyone know what does that number represent or is it just some wishful thinking for a military hardware brochure?
      These numbers are from the real shootings against target-drones similar in speed\altitude\size with the real jet/helicopter/missile. BUT there is in a perfect condition on the range. Other terrain and environment, radio-electronic countermeasures, stealth technologies of modern aircrafts etc can significally reduce kill probability.

      So it is OK to use these numbers when comparing one (russian) AA system with another, but ofcouse we can't expect such numbers in real combat situation.
      Last edited by AND; 13-10-2018, 07:07 AM.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by north44 View Post
        Does anyone know what does that number represent or is it just some wishful thinking for a military hardware brochure?[/SIZE][/FONT][/COLOR]
        Did not know you were banned from google. try to google it, it helps

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        • #5
          Originally posted by username View Post

          Did not know you were banned from google. try to google it, it helps

          well not really Ruski 'bot... google does not help since it does not dig into what the Russians mean by that number... and so far it seems it means BS

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          • #6
            Nobody gonna spoon feeding you, lazy people stay dumb

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            • #7
              As AND pointed out it seems that Russians use the simplest form of probability of kill calculations.
              They don't include other parameters, such as detection and reliability.

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              • #8
                is there something in the small print at the end of the contract that says 'will hit friendly aircraft every so often/kill rate against civilian airliners excellent'...........

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by blackcatnursery View Post
                  is there something in the small print at the end of the contract that says 'will hit friendly aircraft every so often/kill rate against civilian airliners excellent'...........
                  We haven't hit any civilian airliners or friendly aircraft. Can't be held responsible for how the customer uses the product, to be frank.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by blackcatnursery View Post
                    is there something in the small print at the end of the contract that says 'will hit friendly aircraft every so often/kill rate against civilian airliners excellent'...........
                    I thought we were talking about russian missiles, not Patriots, SM2R or Hawks....

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                    • #11
                      Well, honestly we are not specifically talking about US or Russian missiles, but rather we are talking about that number that is used by Russian mostly to describe the performance of their anti air missiles even if I do remember I saw it used for the TOW anti-tank missile somewhere, but I think it wasn't any government or manufacturing source.

                      Missiles go stupid. An AIM-9X missed a tail on shot on a Su-22 from 300 meters... S-200s basically missed every time apart from that F-16I, a friendly and an airliner. The difference is: Russia gives this magic number which is nowhere close to combat reality... US/West do not.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by flamming_python View Post

                        We haven't hit any civilian airliners or friendly aircraft. Can't be held responsible for how the customer uses the product, to be frank.
                        you need to supply the end user documentation in some other language than Ruski

                        And driving your hardware into someone else's country - shoot down and airliner and then drive it back over the border does not count then on a technicality?

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by north44 View Post
                          Does anyone know what does that number represent [/SIZE][/FONT][/COLOR]
                          as i remember, there was one american senator, who was an expert of kill probability of soviet missiles in vietnam.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by merk666 View Post
                            as i remember, there was one american senator, who was an expert of kill probability of soviet missiles in vietnam.

                            out of how many firings exactly? the S-200 has a 85% kill probability... really?

                            the question is simple. What does that number actually represents? sure enough it does not represents anything related to actual combat.

                            ...but I see Ruski bots went defending with irony...

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by north44 View Post


                              out of how many firings exactly? the S-200 has a 85% kill probability... really?

                              the question is simple. What does that number actually represents? sure enough it does not represents anything related to actual combat.

                              ...but I see Ruski bots went defending with irony...
                              It represents the kill probability against drones with aerodynamic characteristics and altitudes, flight paths emulating that of planes. In the S-200s case - for drones emulating strategic bombers because that's the target the S-200 was designed to engage - not fighter aircraft and low-flying cruise missiles.

                              The statistics don't lie, there is nothing to defend. You're the one here making an ass out of yourself. Judging by the S-200s success in downing a Russian civil airliner and a Russian ELINT aircraft based on the Il-20; it seems to be reasonably effective at engaging such classes of aircraft - even if it only locked onto them accidently.

                              The kill probability doesn't take into account EW systems for spoofing/jamming and such countermeasures, to my best knowledge. How can you factor them in as such? Russia doesn't have access to US or Israeli EW systems to test them.
                              Also factors such as stealth can of course shorten the detection and engagement ranges - but they shouldn't affect the kill probability once a lock has been made.

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